Artificial intelligence (AI) is a bubble! ..that’s what I’m hearing more and more these days. Here is my assessment:

We constantly talk about exponential progress and the increasing dynamism of our VUCA world. In reality, however, progress does not always keep pace with these expectations. There are always two speeds of progress: technological progress itself and market penetration and expansion. Despite all the technological developments, we still pay with cash more often than with fingerprints. And I don’t have a quantum computer on my desk either.

The technological revolution initiated by the discovery of electricity in the late 18th century was not an instant game changer. It took over five decades from Alessandro Volta’s discovery of the principle of charge separation in 1775 until Michael Faraday produced electricity in a consistent and usable way. And it was almost another century before electricity was accepted by the market and rolled out on a large scale.

We see similar analogies with AI. The foundations have been laid, and although development timescales are faster today, it will also take time before we experience the full impact of the technology.

So don’t be put off by claims that AI is just a bubble or is overrated. Progress is real, even if it is sometimes slower than we imagine.